Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Maduro... and Trump



     It’s really a no-brainer to say that Nicolas Maduro should step down.  You’ve pretty much lost any credibility you may have had when 87% of your citizens are living below the poverty line, between 7-10% of the population has fled, and the rate of hyperinflation defies the imagination. 

     What’s less clear, however, is why Donald Trump is feigning concern for Venezuela.  After all, Trump  has rarely met a brutal dictator he hasn’t fallen in love with:  Rodrigo Duterte, Mohammed bin Salman, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kim Jong Un, and everybody’s favorite, Vladimir Putin.
     Trump may have (accidentally) stumbled into a foreign policy position that many of our traditional allies have found agreement with, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he turns around and shoots himself in the foot.  With his dismal poll numbers after the Wall/Shutdown debacle, it strikes me as plausible that Trump might initiate an invasion.  After all, he likes bright, shiny things--and we know he’s crazy for explosions--preferably caused by big weapons.  An invasion might be just the ticket (in his mind) to make him popular again.  Of course, there are potential problems.  First and foremost, Putin is supporting Maduro--and Trump does not want to offend Putin.  Second, he’s turned his Venezuela policy over to a discredited madman named Elliott Abrams.  Abrams has the blood of thousands of innocent Latin Americans on his hands (supported a brutal dictatorship in El Salvador and illegally intervened in Nicaragua), and in 1991 he was convicted on two misdemeanor counts of lying to Congress regarding the Iran Contra Affair.  Granted, that may make him look good in Trump’s eyes, but the rest of the world isn’t welcoming him with open arms.  The last thing the United States needs is to intervene yet again in Latin America.
     Economic sanctions would ultimately do little more than harm the Venezuelan people, and the military "option" isn't an option.  We need to maintain political pressure, and work with out allies--and the United Nations--to ensure a peaceful solution.  Free and fair elections should be the goal; not leadership hand-picked or installed by the United States.
     Let's hope Trump's fear of offending other dictators restrains him from initiating military action against Maduro, and that Maduro sees the writing on the wall, and resigns.

     

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